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The fundamental principles of our general investment philosophy, which are epistemic humility and pragmatism, permeate all of our work. You’ll identify them as the recurring trait, a “leit-motif”, in all of our portfolios. Both principles reflect our conviction that having a responsive awareness of the limits of one’s own knowledge and acting accordingly helps to mitigate the cost of negative outcomes and to adapt to actual circumstances. Such conviction propels us and guides us to achieve our goals responsibly.
Adjusting to a new reality
We expect a phase of consolidation in price growth above the Central Bank’s target. Without a recession in sight, there are no strong arguments to believe inflation can dive below 3% this year or in the coming years.
The longer it
The mirage of a soft landing
MacroView in a nutshell: The scenario outlined in our last MacroView has not changed. We still expect higher interest rates and persistent inflation in the mid-term. It has been more than 12 months since economists and markets have been expecting
Market Inconsistencies: trading on hope?
MacroView in a nutshell: The scenario outlined in our last MacroView has not changed. We still expect higher interest rates and persistent inflation, despite the likelihood of a downturn in growth towards the end of 2023. The consensus view, suggested
Where will inflation stabilize?
Headline Inflation has peaked, but core inflation is still high. Inflation is becoming more structural than cyclical, as we envisioned in our last MacroView.
We see a high probability scenario where Federal fund rates in the US reach 6%, with
Have we reached peak inflation fears?
Yes, we think we have reached peak inflation fears but only in the short run. Economic activity has begun to slow down (i.e., Atlanta FED’s GDPNow suggests a -1.6% annualized contraction in the US economy for Q2 2022; strong deceleration
